January 8, 2025

The Appetizer

“We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.”

• Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter quoting his grade school teacher during his Nobel Peace Prize speech in 2002.

Now, on to the numbers. Drum roll, please …

• 50: The number of Stifel Bits you consumed in 2024.
• 25.00%: The S&P 500’s total return for 2024.
• 67.34%: The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index total return for 2024.
• 341,145,670: The estimated U.S. population to start 2025, representing a yearly increase of just over 2.6 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• 452: The equivalent of 2025, making this year a rare perfect square year. The last time it happened was 1936 and the next will be in 2116.

Dig In
New Year, New Outlook

Earlier today, we dropped our much-anticipated views for the year ahead: Outlook 2025: Gravitational Shifts. Catchy, right? Here’s the deal – as we gear up for 2025, we’re spotting some key shifts, such as market broadening, normalization of monetary policy, and a shift back to business-friendly policies over in Washington.

Now, before we dive into the details, remember we aren’t holding a magic 8 ball! Hence why we prepare a base, bull, and bear case.

Base case: Slower but solid economic growth, positive market returns, inflation calming down, and maybe one or two quarter-point rate cuts.

Bear case: It’s cloudier, with potential gridlock in Washington, a weak job market, and stubborn inflation, which could put some pressure on consumers, the economy, and markets.

Bull case: You guessed it, everything goes according to plan.

We introduced some new articles this year. Check out our deep dive into U.S.-China competition and the four paths this rivalry could take. Plus, our Long-Term Investment Themes are explored through a new lens – we’re looking at 10 ways the world could be reshaped over the next decade!

Ready to tackle 2025 with us? Dive into our Outlook here. Cheers to 2025!

Weekly Specials

The 1920s are often called the Roaring ‘20s – jazz legends debuted, The Great Gatsby hit shelves, and potato chips were born. Now, 100 years later, 1920s classics like vintage Mickey Mouse and jazz music have entered the public domain, meaning the work can be used without asking for permission. Let’s see what happens.

As we turn the corner into 2025, things are changing! Illinois is making it easier to cancel gym memberships, Florida is setting a minimum age for social media accounts, and Colorado now requires eggs to come from cage-free facilities. These are among some of the many laws to be changed in 2025.

No shockers in Google’s top searches of 2024 – they were pretty on point. The most searched term was “election,” the trending person was “Donald Trump,” and the trending athlete was “Mike Tyson.” Yep, throwback to when Iron Mike and Jake Paul actually squared off in the ring. What a time to be alive!

Corporate Lunch

Lego has reshaped its business (the toys are still square) and started focusing on customers with deep pockets – grownups.

Apple is offering a holiday discount in China to compete with Huawei. The iPhone 16 is now being sold for just a hand and a foot, marked down from an arm and leg.

Walmart knows what the people want and has started selling a purse that looks a lot like the “standard model” Hermès Birkin, a $7,200+ bag. It sold out immediately, of course.

Rolex has raised the price of its gold watches as much as 14% for 2025 after gold prices increased 27% last year. Will higher prices boost demand? Let’s see if the Veblen good dynamics play out the way we learned in Econ 101.

Netflix set streaming records with its two Christmas Day NFL games being the most streamed NFL games ever in the U.S. The company is also focusing on the other football, securing the U.S. rights to the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031.

The FDA approved Eli Lilly’s Zepbound GLP-1 weight loss drug for the treatment of sleep apnea. Whenever I get sleep apnea, I just wake up five to 100 times per night, and that takes care of it.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

Indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.